FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 Baltika Kaliningrad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 23 Apr 2026

📅23/04/2026 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.57
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
37%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.67
Over 2.5
39%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
17%
4.19
6+ Goals
8%
21.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.16
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.65
X/1
13%
5.69
X/2
12%
5.26
X/X
14%
4.08
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
19%
3.69
2/X
6%
13.45
Value flag · 1/X at 13.65 — our 11% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
35%
-2.6pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.7pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+0.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.0pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 40%
+1% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.32/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.41
-13% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +41%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
292 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 74%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
18.2 Crosses 16.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
0W-0D-5L
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 3.20
1.08 xG 1.63
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
321 Passes 244
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2025 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
13.04.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-7 HT 0-5 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS
31.10.2023 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 4-1 HT 1-1 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUK
23.09.2023 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
10.08.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-2 HT 0-1 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
1-1
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
1.00 xG 1.35
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
300 Passes 196
74% Pass Accuracy 62%
26 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Akhmat Grozny vs Baltika Kaliningrad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Akhmat Grozny and Baltika Kaliningrad couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (32% / 31% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FC Akhmat Grozny had 57% of the ball to Baltika Kaliningrad's 43%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 1.00 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Baltika Kaliningrad led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for FC Akhmat Grozny and 3.20 for Baltika Kaliningrad.

What was the final score of FC Akhmat Grozny vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russia - Premier League on 23/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Akhmat Grozny vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Before kick-off our model rated an Baltika Kaliningrad win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split FC Akhmat Grozny 32%, draw 31%, Baltika Kaliningrad 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Baltika Kaliningrad) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Baltika Kaliningrad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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