Kauno Zalgiris 4-1 Hegelmann Litauen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 23 Jun 2024

📅23/06/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.2pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.6pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+1.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.0pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 40%
-12% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -14%
1.21/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.85
-17% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -19%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
276 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 HT 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
09.03.2024 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 1-2 HT 1-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
12.11.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 4-2 HT 2-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
12.11.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 2-4 HT 0-2 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
29.10.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 4-0 HT 1-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
20.08.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 HT 1-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
4-1
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kauno Zalgiris swept aside Hegelmann Litauen 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 37% — and on the day Kauno Zalgiris made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kauno Zalgiris had 42% of the ball to Hegelmann Litauen's 58%, shots finished 15-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kauno Zalgiris had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Kauno Zalgiris and 1.17 for Hegelmann Litauen.

What was the final score of Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen?

Kauno Zalgiris 4-1 Hegelmann Litauen in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Kauno Zalgiris 38%, draw 24%, Hegelmann Litauen 37%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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