Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 28 Apr 2024

Hegelmann Litauen
0-1 HT 0-1
Kauno Zalgiris
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Lithuania - 1st Division – 2024

Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Zalgiris Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-6.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+5.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hegelmann Litauen v Kauno Zalgiris — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 34%
-11% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -14%
1.49/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.29
+0% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
363 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4

Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Zalgiris Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hegelmann Litauen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.03.2024 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 1-2 HT 1-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
12.11.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 2-4 HT 0-2 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
12.11.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 4-2 HT 2-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
29.10.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 4-0 HT 1-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
20.08.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 HT 1-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
19.04.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 3-2 HT 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1

Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hegelmann Litauen
0-1
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
POST-MATCH Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Zalgiris
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kauno Zalgiris nicked a narrow win over Hegelmann Litauen 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Kauno Zalgiris found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Hegelmann Litauen had 48% of the ball to Kauno Zalgiris's 52%, shots finished 10-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kauno Zalgiris led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Hegelmann Litauen and 2.67 for Kauno Zalgiris.

What was the final score of Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Zalgiris?

Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Zalgiris?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hegelmann Litauen win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Hegelmann Litauen 36%, draw 27%, Kauno Zalgiris 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/27/36) ✓ BTTS No
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