Indy Eleven 0-1 Orange County SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 23 Jun 2024

📅23/06/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.7
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.28
6+ Goals
10%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 25% vs market 21.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
54%
-9.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+7.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 25%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +20%
1.66/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.15
-19% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
341 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
19.4 Crosses 12.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Indy Eleven
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Orange County SC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 1.09
55% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
336 Passes 252
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 11
26 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.04.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-0 HT 1-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
25.04.2022 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 3-1 HT 0-1 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Indy Eleven
0-1
AWAY Orange County SC
1.12 xG 0.47
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
387 Passes 184
80% Pass Accuracy 67%
24 Box Touches 8
37 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Indy Eleven vs Orange County SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orange County SC edged past Indy Eleven 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Indy Eleven at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Indy Eleven had 65% of the ball to Orange County SC's 35%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.12 to 0.47 — on chances, Indy Eleven could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Indy Eleven and 1.00 for Orange County SC.

What was the final score of Indy Eleven vs Orange County SC?

Indy Eleven 0-1 Orange County SC in the USL Championship on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Indy Eleven vs Orange County SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Indy Eleven win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Indy Eleven 44%, draw 26%, Orange County SC 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Indy Eleven) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Indy Eleven) ✓ Under 2.5
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