Monterey Bay 2-1 Oakland Roots — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 23 Jun 2024

📅23/06/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
34%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.31
6+ Goals
9%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 30% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+1.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
34%
Away Win
34%
-0.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.7pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Oakland Roots EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.53/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.54
-20% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 78%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
21.5 Crosses 14.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterey Bay
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Oakland Roots
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
0.83 xG 1.26
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
282 Passes 445
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.04.2024 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots 0-1 HT 0-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
24.09.2023 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots 2-2 HT 1-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
16.07.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-3 HT 1-2 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots USLP
05.06.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-2 HT 0-1 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots USLP
27.03.2022 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots 2-3 HT 1-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterey Bay
2-1
AWAY Oakland Roots
1.34 xG 2.34
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
231 Passes 460
72% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Monterey Bay vs Oakland Roots
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterey Bay nicked a narrow win over Oakland Roots 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Monterey Bay made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Monterey Bay had 38% of the ball to Oakland Roots's 62%, shots finished 9-20, expected goals 1.34 to 2.34 — the balance of chances actually favoured Oakland Roots.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Monterey Bay and 1.80 for Oakland Roots.

What was the final score of Monterey Bay vs Oakland Roots?

Monterey Bay 2-1 Oakland Roots in the USL Championship on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterey Bay vs Oakland Roots?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterey Bay win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 40%, draw 26%, Oakland Roots 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterey Bay) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterey Bay) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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