Nottingham Forest 2-1 Millwall — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 23 Jul 2024

Nottingham Forest
2-1 HT 1-0
Millwall
📅23/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2024/2025

Nottingham Forest vs Millwall Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
1.66
Draw
31%
3.64
Away
36%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.09
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.79
6+ Goals
11%
16.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 29% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.2
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.35
X/1
12%
3.83
X/2
15%
9.52
X/X
15%
4.84
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
13%
7.74
2/X
6%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
56%
-22.8pp
31%
Draw
24%
+6.4pp
36%
Away Win
20%
+16.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.9pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nottingham Forest v Millwall — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Millwall EU Bookmakers 23%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-45% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
363 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Nottingham Forest vs Millwall Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Millwall
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.46 xG 1.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
340 Passes 269
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
15.01.2022 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
25.09.2021 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
16.01.2021 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 3-1 HT 1-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
19.12.2020 Millwall Millwall 1-1 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
06.03.2020 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-3 HT 0-3 Millwall Millwall İNCL
06.12.2019 Millwall Millwall 2-2 HT 1-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL

Nottingham Forest 2-1 Millwall — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
2-1
AWAY Millwall
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Millwall
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest edged past Millwall 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (33% / 31% / 36%) promised a tight game; Nottingham Forest found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 62% of the ball to Millwall's 38%, shots finished 9-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nottingham Forest had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.33 for Millwall.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Millwall?

Nottingham Forest 2-1 Millwall in the Friendlies on 23/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Millwall?

Before kick-off our model rated an Millwall win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 33%, draw 31%, Millwall 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Millwall), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Millwall) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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