Sturm Graz 0-2 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 23 Jul 2024

Sturm Graz
0-2 HT 0-1
Porto
📅23/07/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Friendlies – 2024/2025

Sturm Graz vs Porto Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.32
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
8.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.66
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
22.7
1/X
9%
13.25
X/1
11%
7.03
X/2
11%
4.82
X/X
12%
5.38
2/1
9%
31.5
2/2
21%
2.76
2/X
6%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
42%
Away Win
45%
-3.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.8pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sturm Graz v Porto — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 49%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.34/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.98
-2% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +35%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
295 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.5 Yellow Cards –

Sturm Graz 0-2 Porto — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
0-2
AWAY Porto
40% Ball Possession 60%
4 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto got the better of Sturm Graz 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 40% of the ball to Porto's 60%, shots finished 4-20.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Porto?

Sturm Graz 0-2 Porto in the Friendlies on 23/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 31%, draw 26%, Porto 42%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✗ BTTS Yes
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