Arsenal 1-0 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 23 Jul 2025

Arsenal
1-0 HT 0-0
Milan
📅23/07/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Friendlies – 2025/2026

Arsenal vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.01
2-3 Goals
41%
2.0
4-5 Goals
26%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
7.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.87
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.4
X/1
18%
4.24
X/2
8%
12.0
X/X
13%
6.74
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
20.0
2/2
9%
9.02
2/X
6%
17.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.0 — our 12% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-9.3pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.9pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.0pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Milan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.90/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.83
+55% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -32%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
466 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 80%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
12.4 Crosses 11.7
0.4 Yellow Cards 1.0

Arsenal vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Milan
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.74 xG 1.06
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
455 Passes 381
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 21
9 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.12.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 2-1 HT 2-0 Milan Milan HAZ
15.03.2018 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 1-1 Milan Milan AVL
08.03.2018 Milan Milan 0-2 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal AVL
06.03.2012 Arsenal Arsenal 3-0 HT 3-0 Milan Milan ŞMP
15.02.2012 Milan Milan 4-0 HT 2-0 Arsenal Arsenal ŞMP
04.03.2008 Milan Milan 0-2 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal ŞMP

Arsenal 1-0 Milan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
1-0
AWAY Milan
1.83 xG 0.21
56% Ball Possession 44%
23 Total Shots 3
9 Shots on Target 1
14 Corners 2
446 Passes 338
90% Pass Accuracy 87%
48 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 4
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal edged past Milan 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arsenal had 56% of the ball to Milan's 44%, shots finished 23-3, expected goals 1.83 to 0.21 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Arsenal's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Arsenal and 1.00 for Milan.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Milan?

Arsenal 1-0 Milan in the Friendlies on 23/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 52%, draw 24%, Milan 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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