Alianza Petrolera 0-1 Deportes Tolima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 23 Jul 2025

Alianza Petrolera
0-1 HT 0-1
Deportes Tolima
📅23/07/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Colombia - Primera – 2025

Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.38
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.52
Over 2.5
42%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
38%
+1.6pp
26%
Draw
31%
-4.5pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.2pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Alianza Petrolera v Deportes Tolima — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 34%
+6% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +1%
1.22/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.16
+16% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
276 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
18.5 Crosses 13.4
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.1

Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Deportes Tolima
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.92 xG 1.15
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
318 Passes 271
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.02.2025 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 3-1 HT 2-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
30.03.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-2 HT 0-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
23.10.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-1 HT 0-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
17.08.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOLK
27.07.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOLK
07.05.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-1 HT 2-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL

Alianza Petrolera 0-1 Deportes Tolima — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
0-1
AWAY Deportes Tolima
0.78 xG 0.67
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 1
391 Passes 255
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 9
35 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima nicked a narrow win over Alianza Petrolera 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Deportes Tolima found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 60% of the ball to Deportes Tolima's 40%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 0.78 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 1.67 for Deportes Tolima.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima?

Alianza Petrolera 0-1 Deportes Tolima in the Colombia - Primera on 23/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Petrolera win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 40%, draw 26%, Deportes Tolima 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Alianza Petrolera) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Petrolera) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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