Waterford FC 0-1 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 23 Aug 2024

📅23/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.87
Draw
33%
3.45
Away
42%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.75
Over 2.5
40%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.99
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.9
6+ Goals
8%
17.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 31% vs market 27.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
7.07
1/2
5%
25.5
1/X
7%
15.45
X/1
7%
8.75
X/2
18%
3.98
X/X
18%
4.62
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.35
2/X
8%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
22%
+3.3pp
33%
Draw
25%
+7.6pp
42%
Away Win
53%
-10.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
53%
+6.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
47%
-6.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.1pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Waterford FC EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 57%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
0.52/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/0.92
+5% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -8%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
227 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 74%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
18.5 Crosses 21.2
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Waterford FC
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Derry City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.62 xG 2.05
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
247 Passes 303
69% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
03.06.2024 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 3-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
26.04.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
08.03.2024 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 2-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
02.11.2021 Waterford FC Waterford FC 2-2 HT 2-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
02.07.2021 Derry City Derry City 2-0 HT 1-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
03.04.2021 Derry City Derry City 1-2 HT 1-1 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Waterford FC
0-1
AWAY Derry City
0.81 xG 0.46
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 5
236 Passes 321
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Waterford FC vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City edged past Waterford FC 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Derry City as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Waterford FC had 45% of the ball to Derry City's 55%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.81 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Waterford FC and 2.17 for Derry City.

What was the final score of Waterford FC vs Derry City?

Waterford FC 0-1 Derry City in the Ireland - Premier League on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Waterford FC vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Waterford FC 25%, draw 33%, Derry City 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derry City), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Derry City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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