Belgrano 0-2 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 23 Aug 2024

📅23/08/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.33
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.62
Over 2.5
38%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.5
6+ Goals
7%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 34% vs market 32.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.49
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
11%
5.02
X/2
14%
6.05
X/X
16%
3.85
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
15%
4.54
2/X
8%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-3.6pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.7pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.9pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Belgrano EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.0
Crosses 20.0
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Belgrano
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.86 xG 1.44
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 9
237 Passes 304
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 27
26 Crosses 41
5 Yellow Cards 3
16.08.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-1 HT 1-1 Belgrano Belgrano CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Belgrano
0-2
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
0.64 xG 0.72
76% Ball Possession 24%
14 Total Shots 3
0 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 1
397 Passes 94
84% Pass Accuracy 59%
38 Box Touches 8
62 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Belgrano vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense got the better of Belgrano 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 30% / 34% — and on the day Atletico Paranaense made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Belgrano had 76% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 24%, shots finished 14-3, expected goals 0.64 to 0.72.

What was the final score of Belgrano vs Atletico Paranaense?

Belgrano 0-2 Atletico Paranaense in the Copa Sudamericana on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Belgrano vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Belgrano win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Belgrano 36%, draw 30%, Atletico Paranaense 34%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Belgrano) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Belgrano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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