Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 FC Flora Tallinn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 23 Aug 2024

📅23/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.09
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
53%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
24%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
17%
+7.4pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.4pp
53%
Away Win
62%
-8.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn EU Bookmakers 66%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +0%
1.44/1.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/0.85
+45% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +10%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
237 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 483 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
1W-1D-4L
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 0-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
14.04.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-3 HT 0-3 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
18.02.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-3 HT 0-1 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn HAZ
01.10.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
28.07.2023 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
10.06.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-5 HT 1-1 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
0-1
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Flora Tallinn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Flora Tallinn edged past Parnu JK Vaprus 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had FC Flora Tallinn as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 42% of the ball to FC Flora Tallinn's 58%, shots finished 10-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Flora Tallinn led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 2.17 for FC Flora Tallinn.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Flora Tallinn?

Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 FC Flora Tallinn in the Estonia - Premium League on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Flora Tallinn?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Flora Tallinn win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 24%, draw 23%, FC Flora Tallinn 53%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Flora Tallinn) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Flora Tallinn) ✗ Over 2.5
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