Swansea City 1-1 Watford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.73
2-3 Goals
37%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.91
6+ Goals
9%
18.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 33% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.36
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
15%
4.16
X/2
8%
8.69
X/X
13%
4.43
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
10%
7.28
2/X
8%
15.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-5.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.0pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.6pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swansea City EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Watford EU Bookmakers 25%
-6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -15%
1.64/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.64
+9% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -14%
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
407 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 74%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
18.8 Crosses 15.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swansea City
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Watford
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.20 xG 1.12
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
406 Passes 274
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
12.03.2025 Watford Watford 1-0 HT 1-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
05.11.2024 Swansea City Swansea City 1-0 HT 1-0 Watford Watford İNCL
06.03.2024 Watford Watford 1-1 HT 0-1 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
24.10.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 0-1 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNCL
30.12.2022 Swansea City Swansea City 4-0 HT 1-0 Watford Watford İNCL
05.10.2022 Watford Watford 1-2 HT 1-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swansea City
1-1
AWAY Watford
0.68 xG 0.41
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
306 Passes 215
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Swansea City vs Watford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swansea City and Watford couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Swansea City at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Swansea City had 58% of the ball to Watford's 42%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.68 to 0.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swansea City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Swansea City and 0.67 for Watford.

What was the final score of Swansea City vs Watford?

Swansea City 1-1 Watford in the England - Championship on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swansea City vs Watford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swansea City win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Swansea City 47%, draw 28%, Watford 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Swansea City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Swansea City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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