Mamelodi Sundowns 1-1 Orlando Pirates — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Cup, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.64
Over 2.5
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.5
2-3 Goals
36%
1.69
4-5 Goals
22%
4.13
6+ Goals
9%
21.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-3.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.1pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.7pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Orlando Pirates EU Bookmakers 26%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +38% / +38%
1.28/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/0.68
-5% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +83% / +39%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
402 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 72%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
12.1 Crosses 15.6
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Orlando Pirates
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.55 xG 0.99
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
365 Passes 213
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
19 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.08.2025 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 1-1 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAF8K
16.03.2025 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 2-1 HT 2-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
08.02.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 4-1 HT 2-0 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAFPSL
01.06.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-2 HT 0-0 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAF8K
17.02.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-1 HT 0-0 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAFPSL
07.10.2023 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 0-0 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAF8K
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
1-1
AWAY Orlando Pirates
0.62 xG 0.75
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 7
295 Passes 204
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 33
7 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs Orlando Pirates
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns and Orlando Pirates shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Mamelodi Sundowns at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 55% of the ball to Orlando Pirates's 45%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.62 to 0.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando Pirates led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 1.17 for Orlando Pirates.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs Orlando Pirates?

Mamelodi Sundowns 1-1 Orlando Pirates in the South Afrika - Cup on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Orlando Pirates?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 47%, draw 25%, Orlando Pirates 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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