Sao Paulo 1-3 Internacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
32%
2.83
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.45
Over 2.5
35%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
16%
6.19
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.27
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.45
X/1
14%
5.32
X/2
9%
5.23
X/X
14%
3.33
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
13%
4.17
2/X
9%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+2.8pp
32%
Draw
32%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-2.8pp
65%
Under 2.5
65%
+0.2pp
35%
Over 2.5
35%
-0.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.6pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Internacional EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +16%
1.33/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/0.97
-5% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +37%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
288 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 81%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
21.0 Crosses 17.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Internacional
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.31 xG 0.97
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
417 Passes 346
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
14.06.2024 Internacional Internacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
14.09.2023 Internacional Internacional 2-1 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
07.05.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 1-0 Internacional Internacional BR1
09.11.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-1 HT 0-1 Internacional Internacional BR1
21.07.2022 Internacional Internacional 3-3 HT 3-2 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
01.11.2021 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 1-0 Internacional Internacional BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
1-3
AWAY Internacional
0.77 xG 0.98
61% Ball Possession 39%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
391 Passes 214
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Internacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Internacional got the better of Sao Paulo 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 32% / 31%) promised a tight game; Internacional found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 61% of the ball to Internacional's 39%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.77 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.00 for Internacional.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Internacional?

Sao Paulo 1-3 Internacional in the Brazil - Serie A on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Internacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 37%, draw 32%, Internacional 31%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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