Gremio 3-2 Flamengo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.8
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.22
6+ Goals
11%
20.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.44
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.0
X/1
16%
3.94
X/2
11%
8.39
X/X
16%
4.42
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
14%
6.95
2/X
5%
15.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
52%
-10.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
31%
Away Win
22%
+9.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Flamengo EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.56/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.49
+9% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
356 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
17.5 Crosses 15.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Flamengo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.29 xG 1.59
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
327 Passes 426
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
14.06.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 2-1 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
26.10.2023 Gremio Gremio 3-2 HT 0-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
17.08.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BRK
27.07.2023 Gremio Gremio 0-2 HT 0-1 Flamengo Flamengo BRK
12.06.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 3-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
24.11.2021 Gremio Gremio 2-2 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
3-2
AWAY Flamengo
1.56 xG 1.42
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
308 Passes 436
83% Pass Accuracy 91%
21 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Flamengo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio squeezed past Flamengo 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Gremio had 44% of the ball to Flamengo's 56%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 1.56 to 1.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gremio and 2.00 for Flamengo.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Flamengo?

Gremio 3-2 Flamengo in the Brazil - Serie A on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Flamengo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Gremio 41%, draw 28%, Flamengo 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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