Gremio vs Flamengo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Gremio v Flamengo — Team-Based Signals
Gremio vs Flamengo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-2
HT 0-1
Flamengo
BR1
1-0
HT 0-0
Gremio
BRK
0-2
HT 0-1
Flamengo
BRK
3-0
HT 1-0
Gremio
BR1
2-2
HT 0-0
Flamengo
BR1
Gremio 3-2 Flamengo — Actual Match Statistics
Gremio squeezed past Flamengo 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Gremio had 44% of the ball to Flamengo's 56%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 1.56 to 1.42.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gremio and 2.00 for Flamengo.
What was the final score of Gremio vs Flamengo?
Gremio 3-2 Flamengo in the Brazil - Serie A on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Gremio vs Flamengo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Gremio 41%, draw 28%, Flamengo 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.