Arda Kardzhali 1-0 Botev Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.7pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.9pp
34%
Away Win
35%
-0.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.5pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 38%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.31/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/1.16
+21% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arda Kardzhali
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Botev Plovdiv
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.05.2024 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-1 HT 0-1 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
11.05.2024 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 2-1 HT 0-1 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
01.12.2023 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 0-2 HT 0-0 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
04.08.2023 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-2 HT 0-2 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
06.06.2023 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-3 HT 0-1 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
23.05.2023 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 2-1 HT 0-1 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arda Kardzhali
1-0
AWAY Botev Plovdiv
41% Ball Possession 59%
4 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 13
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arda Kardzhali nicked a narrow win over Botev Plovdiv 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 34%) promised a tight game; Arda Kardzhali found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Arda Kardzhali had 41% of the ball to Botev Plovdiv's 59%, shots finished 4-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arda Kardzhali had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 0.67 for Botev Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv?

Arda Kardzhali 1-0 Botev Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Arda Kardzhali 35%, draw 30%, Botev Plovdiv 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arda Kardzhali), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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