CD Victoria 1-3 Motagua — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.32
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
52%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.8
Over 2.5
57%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
22%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
27%
-0.6pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.6pp
52%
Away Win
47%
+5.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
52%
-8.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
48%
+8.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CD Victoria EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Motagua EU Bookmakers 51%
+9% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
1.24/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/1.03
+18% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +59% / +1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
313 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CD Victoria
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Motagua
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
31.03.2024 CD Victoria CD Victoria 2-2 HT 0-1 Motagua Motagua HON
01.02.2024 Motagua Motagua 3-0 HT 1-0 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
26.11.2023 Motagua Motagua 1-3 HT 1-2 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
21.09.2023 CD Victoria CD Victoria 0-4 HT 0-3 Motagua Motagua HON
13.03.2023 Motagua Motagua 3-1 HT 3-0 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
29.01.2023 CD Victoria CD Victoria 2-2 HT 1-1 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH CD Victoria vs Motagua
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua saw off CD Victoria 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Motagua as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motagua led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for CD Victoria and 2.50 for Motagua.

What was the final score of CD Victoria vs Motagua?

CD Victoria 1-3 Motagua in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CD Victoria vs Motagua?

Before kick-off our model rated an Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split CD Victoria 26%, draw 22%, Motagua 52%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motagua), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Motagua) ✓ Over 2.5
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