Lobos UPNFM 1-0 Real Espana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
32%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+4.3pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.1pp
32%
Away Win
40%
-7.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.4pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Espana EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
0.85/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.31
-27% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lobos UPNFM
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Real Espana
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
04.04.2024 Real Espana Real Espana 1-0 HT 1-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
04.02.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-1 HT 0-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
08.10.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-3 HT 1-1 Real Espana Real Espana HON
12.08.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 2-1 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
08.05.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 2-0 HT 1-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
05.05.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
POST-MATCH Lobos UPNFM vs Real Espana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lobos UPNFM edged past Real Espana 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 32% / 32% — and on the day Lobos UPNFM made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Espana led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lobos UPNFM and 1.50 for Real Espana.

What was the final score of Lobos UPNFM vs Real Espana?

Lobos UPNFM 1-0 Real Espana in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lobos UPNFM vs Real Espana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lobos UPNFM win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Lobos UPNFM 36%, draw 32%, Real Espana 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lobos UPNFM), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lobos UPNFM) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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