FC Juarez 0-1 Tigres UANL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒04:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
47%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.89
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
10.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
20%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
26%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.6pp
47%
Away Win
50%
-2.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 54%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +9%
1.02/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.02
-1% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +44%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
275 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 83%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
16.1 Crosses 17.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Tigres UANL
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.77 xG 1.47
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
299 Passes 415
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.02.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
09.07.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
15.02.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
27.07.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-1 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
26.02.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 2-3 HT 0-3 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
07.11.2021 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 3-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
0-1
AWAY Tigres UANL
0.32 xG 1.93
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 4
310 Passes 418
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL edged past FC Juarez 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tigres UANL as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, FC Juarez had 44% of the ball to Tigres UANL's 56%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 0.32 to 1.93 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tigres UANL's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for FC Juarez and 1.50 for Tigres UANL.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL?

FC Juarez 0-1 Tigres UANL in the Mexico - Primera on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 26%, draw 28%, Tigres UANL 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✗ BTTS Yes
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