Pumas UNAM 1-0 Tijuana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
4.57
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.24
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.57 — our 26% vs market 17.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-7.8pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.1pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Tijuana EU Bookmakers 21%
-9% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -19%
1.82/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.75
-2% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -21%
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
370 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 77%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
22.8 Crosses 15.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Tijuana
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.11 xG 1.80
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
263 Passes 332
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.03.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-3 HT 2-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
01.07.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-3 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
28.01.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 0-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
03.07.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-1 HT 0-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
06.02.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 1-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
24.10.2021 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-1 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
1-0
AWAY Tijuana
2.62 xG 0.19
40% Ball Possession 60%
20 Total Shots 5
12 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
284 Passes 427
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Tijuana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM edged past Tijuana 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Pumas UNAM as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 40% of the ball to Tijuana's 60%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 2.62 to 0.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Pumas UNAM's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.33 for Tijuana.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Tijuana?

Pumas UNAM 1-0 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Tijuana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 53%, draw 24%, Tijuana 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pumas UNAM), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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