Santos Laguna 2-0 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.65
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
55%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.51
Over 2.5
52%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.42
2-3 Goals
42%
2.0
4-5 Goals
26%
2.67
6+ Goals
10%
6.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
31%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
18%
+4.7pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.9pp
54%
Away Win
60%
-5.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
36%
+11.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
64%
-11.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 64%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +34% / +34%
1.33/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.57/0.89
+11% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -14%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 82%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
19.1 Crosses 11.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos Laguna
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Toluca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.62 xG 2.20
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
272 Passes 392
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.02.2024 Toluca Toluca 1-0 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
06.11.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-1 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
24.02.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-5 HT 0-2 Toluca Toluca MEK
17.10.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 1-2 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
14.10.2022 Toluca Toluca 4-3 HT 2-2 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
24.07.2022 Toluca Toluca 2-1 HT 2-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos Laguna
2-0
AWAY Toluca
1.45 xG 0.87
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 13
213 Passes 398
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
7 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 31
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Santos Laguna vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos Laguna got the better of Toluca 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Toluca at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Santos Laguna had 37% of the ball to Toluca's 63%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 1.45 to 0.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Santos Laguna and 2.50 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Santos Laguna vs Toluca?

Santos Laguna 2-0 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos Laguna vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Santos Laguna 23%, draw 22%, Toluca 54%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Toluca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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