Haras El Hodood 2-3 Al Ahly — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 23 Sep 2025

Haras El Hodood
2-3 HT 1-2
Al Ahly
📅23/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Egypt - Premier League – 2025/2026

Haras El Hodood vs Al Ahly Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
10%
12.23
Draw
16%
5.28
Away
74%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.53
No
56%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.81
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
2.94
6+ Goals
10%
9.33
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.81 — our 27% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
3%
1/2
12%
1/X
4%
X/1
4%
X/2
27%
X/X
6%
2/1
4%
2/2
35%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
10%
Home Win
5%
+4.8pp
16%
Draw
16%
+0.2pp
74%
Away Win
79%
-5.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
36%
+8.2pp
56%
BTTS No
64%
-8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Haras El Hodood v Al Ahly — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Haras El Hodood EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 84%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.49/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/0.74
-28% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -25%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
236 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 461 · 84%
11.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
16.2 Crosses 18.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 1.2

Haras El Hodood vs Al Ahly Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Haras El Hodood
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Al Ahly
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.53 xG 1.83
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
228 Passes 449
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
04.05.2025 Al Ahly Al Ahly 5-0 HT 2-0 Haras El Hodood Haras El Hodood MSR
26.02.2025 Haras El Hodood Haras El Hodood 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
19.07.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 1-1 HT 0-0 Haras El Hodood Haras El Hodood MSR
22.06.2023 Haras El Hodood Haras El Hodood 0-3 HT 0-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
07.09.2020 Haras El Hodood Haras El Hodood 0-2 HT 0-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
15.12.2019 Al Ahly Al Ahly 1-0 HT 0-0 Haras El Hodood Haras El Hodood MSR

Haras El Hodood 2-3 Al Ahly — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Haras El Hodood
2-3
AWAY Al Ahly
0.38 xG 4.15
32% Ball Possession 68%
4 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 11
139 Passes 415
60% Pass Accuracy 87%
8 Box Touches 34
7 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Haras El Hodood vs Al Ahly
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahly edged past Haras El Hodood 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Ahly as the likeliest winner at 74%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Haras El Hodood had 32% of the ball to Al Ahly's 68%, shots finished 4-22, expected goals 0.38 to 4.15 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Ahly's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahly led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Haras El Hodood and 2.17 for Al Ahly.

What was the final score of Haras El Hodood vs Al Ahly?

Haras El Hodood 2-3 Al Ahly in the Egypt - Premier League on 23/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Haras El Hodood vs Al Ahly?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 74%, with the full match-result split Haras El Hodood 10%, draw 16%, Al Ahly 74%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahly) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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