Luton Town 1-2 Sunderland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.08
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.8
6+ Goals
9%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 28% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.59
1/2
9%
31.0
1/X
10%
13.1
X/1
12%
5.29
X/2
8%
5.69
X/X
14%
4.38
2/1
9%
29.0
2/2
15%
3.99
2/X
5%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+0.7pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.8pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luton Town EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Sunderland EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / -3%
1.43/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.06
+10% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +47%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
258 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 70%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.1
23.7 Crosses 15.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luton Town
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Sunderland
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.34 xG 0.90
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
198 Passes 344
68% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.05.2023 Luton Town Luton Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
13.05.2023 Sunderland Sunderland 2-1 HT 1-1 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
18.03.2023 Sunderland Sunderland 1-1 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
29.10.2022 Luton Town Luton Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
12.01.2019 Sunderland Sunderland 1-1 HT 1-0 Luton Town Luton Town İN1
11.08.2018 Luton Town Luton Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Sunderland Sunderland İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luton Town
1-2
AWAY Sunderland
1.80 xG 0.70
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 3
302 Passes 246
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
36 Box Touches 14
43 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Luton Town vs Sunderland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sunderland edged past Luton Town 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Sunderland made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Luton Town had 56% of the ball to Sunderland's 44%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.80 to 0.70 — the balance of chances actually favoured Luton Town.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Luton Town and 1.00 for Sunderland.

What was the final score of Luton Town vs Sunderland?

Luton Town 1-2 Sunderland in the England - Championship on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luton Town vs Sunderland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Luton Town 39%, draw 29%, Sunderland 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Luton Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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