Millwall 1-0 Plymouth Argyle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.82
No
58%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.59
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.59 — our 31% vs market 22.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.03
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.8
X/1
18%
3.79
X/2
9%
10.45
X/X
12%
5.48
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
13%
8.21
2/X
5%
16.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
58%
-5.9pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.4pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+6.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
51%
-9.1pp
58%
BTTS No
49%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 22%
-12% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.59/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.79
-23% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
295 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 71%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
26.0 Crosses 10.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.06 xG 0.57
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
277 Passes 376
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 18
6 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2024 Millwall Millwall 1-0 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
03.10.2023 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-2 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
29.08.2018 Millwall Millwall 3-2 HT 0-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNLK
10.11.2015 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 3-5 HT 1-2 Millwall Millwall İNTK
09.08.2011 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNLK
15.04.2006 Millwall Millwall 1-1 HT 1-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
1-0
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
1.19 xG 0.62
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
281 Passes 490
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 6
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Plymouth Argyle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall squeezed past Plymouth Argyle 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Millwall as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Millwall had 39% of the ball to Plymouth Argyle's 61%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.19 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millwall had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Millwall and 1.00 for Plymouth Argyle.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Plymouth Argyle?

Millwall 1-0 Plymouth Argyle in the England - Championship on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Plymouth Argyle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millwall win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Millwall 52%, draw 23%, Plymouth Argyle 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Millwall), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Millwall) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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