Concarneau 1-1 Villefranche — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.75
Over 2.5
41%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.92
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.0
6+ Goals
9%
18.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 31% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.39
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.8
X/1
15%
3.97
X/2
8%
8.55
X/X
13%
4.56
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
11%
6.95
2/X
9%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.5pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.1pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Concarneau EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Villefranche EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -11%
1.45/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.45
-12% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
387 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Concarneau
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Villefranche
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.03.2023 Villefranche Villefranche 1-1 HT 0-1 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
21.10.2022 Concarneau Concarneau 4-1 HT 3-1 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
07.02.2022 Concarneau Concarneau 2-0 HT 1-0 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
27.08.2021 Villefranche Villefranche 1-1 HT 0-0 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
03.04.2021 Villefranche Villefranche 1-0 HT 0-0 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
06.11.2020 Concarneau Concarneau 1-0 HT 1-0 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
POST-MATCH Concarneau vs Villefranche
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Concarneau and Villefranche shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Concarneau at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Concarneau had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Concarneau and 0.67 for Villefranche.

What was the final score of Concarneau vs Villefranche?

Concarneau 1-1 Villefranche in the France - National League 1 on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Concarneau vs Villefranche?

Before kick-off our model rated a Concarneau win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Concarneau 45%, draw 29%, Villefranche 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Concarneau), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Concarneau) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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