Gamba Osaka 3-2 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.38
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
28%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.51
Over 2.5
38%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
5.51
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.67
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
4%
14.45
X/1
20%
4.83
X/2
11%
5.67
X/X
15%
3.61
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
11%
4.6
2/X
9%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
38%
+5.0pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.1pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-2.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.3pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -15%
1.62/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.19
+0% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 76%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
17.1 Crosses 16.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.71 xG 1.10
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
383 Passes 352
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 1
11.05.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-1 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
21.10.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
06.05.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
27.08.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-2 HT 0-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
02.04.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 3-1 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
20.11.2021 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-3 HT 0-3 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
3-2
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.75 xG 1.88
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 7
467 Passes 257
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 26
7 Crosses 20
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka squeezed past Nagoya Grampus 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gamba Osaka as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 60% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 40%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 1.75 to 1.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gamba Osaka and 1.00 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus?

Gamba Osaka 3-2 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 43%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gamba Osaka) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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