Melgar 1-0 UTC Cajamarca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.22
Draw
23%
5.28
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.51
No
58%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
78%
-16.8pp
23%
Draw
16%
+6.9pp
17%
Away Win
7%
+9.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
36%
+5.8pp
58%
BTTS No
64%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY UTC Cajamarca EU Bookmakers 9%
-11% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
2.03/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.66
-6% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +3%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
391 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 73%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
22.6 Crosses 13.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melgar
2W-2D-2L
AWAY UTC Cajamarca
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.56 xG 1.02
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
295 Passes 170
74% Pass Accuracy 62%
23 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 2-6 HT 0-2 Melgar Melgar PER
16.08.2023 Melgar Melgar 1-1 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
18.03.2023 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 0-0 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
29.07.2022 Melgar Melgar 1-0 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
04.03.2022 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 3-1 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
17.08.2021 Melgar Melgar 0-1 HT 0-1 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
1-0
AWAY UTC Cajamarca
2.76 xG 0.32
74% Ball Possession 26%
23 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 0
12 Corners 1
427 Passes 110
84% Pass Accuracy 60%
32 Box Touches 7
30 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar edged past UTC Cajamarca 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Melgar had 74% of the ball to UTC Cajamarca's 26%, shots finished 23-4, expected goals 2.76 to 0.32 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melgar's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Melgar and 1.17 for UTC Cajamarca.

What was the final score of Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca?

Melgar 1-0 UTC Cajamarca in the Peru - Premier League on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Melgar 61%, draw 23%, UTC Cajamarca 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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