Burgos 1-0 Eibar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 23 Nov 2024

Burgos
1-0 HT 0-0
Eibar
📅23/11/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
16%
5.3
6+ Goals
9%
33.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.26
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
12%
4.63
X/2
11%
6.64
X/X
15%
3.64
2/1
5%
33.5
2/2
12%
5.42
2/X
6%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.4pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.4pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.9pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burgos EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Eibar EU Bookmakers 31%
+9% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -12%
1.31/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.25
-13% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
303 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
19.5 Crosses 18.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burgos
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Eibar
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.66 xG 0.91
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
240 Passes 420
70% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.03.2024 Eibar Eibar 0-1 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
09.09.2023 Burgos Burgos 1-0 HT 0-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
11.03.2023 Eibar Eibar 1-0 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
08.12.2022 Burgos Burgos 1-2 HT 1-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
27.02.2022 Eibar Eibar 2-0 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
29.08.2021 Burgos Burgos 0-1 HT 0-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burgos
1-0
AWAY Eibar
1.94 xG 0.35
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 5
390 Passes 292
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Burgos vs Eibar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burgos squeezed past Eibar 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Burgos as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Burgos had 57% of the ball to Eibar's 43%, shots finished 15-5, expected goals 1.94 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Burgos's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Eibar led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Burgos and 1.00 for Eibar.

What was the final score of Burgos vs Eibar?

Burgos 1-0 Eibar in the Spain - 2nd Division on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burgos vs Eibar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burgos win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Burgos 44%, draw 28%, Eibar 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burgos), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Burgos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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