Parma 1-3 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 23 Nov 2024

Parma
1-3 HT 0-2
Atalanta
📅23/11/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✓
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Parma vs Atalanta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.48
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
49%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.38
Over 2.5
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.06
2-3 Goals
39%
1.97
4-5 Goals
25%
2.79
6+ Goals
15%
7.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.96
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
20.45
1/X
7%
15.95
X/1
10%
11.35
X/2
12%
4.04
X/X
12%
6.52
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
26%
1.94
2/X
7%
15.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.45 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
20%
+6.4pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.7pp
49%
Away Win
59%
-10.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Parma v Atalanta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parma EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 62%
+12% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -9%
1.43/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/0.89
-2% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +6%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 84%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.4
16.7 Crosses 18.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Parma vs Atalanta Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parma
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Atalanta
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.96 xG 2.70
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
320 Passes 486
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
11 Box Touches 35
10 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
04.08.2024 Parma Parma 4-1 HT 2-1 Atalanta Atalanta HAZ
09.05.2021 Parma Parma 2-5 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
06.01.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 3-0 HT 1-0 Parma Parma İTA
28.07.2020 Parma Parma 1-2 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
06.01.2020 Atalanta Atalanta 5-0 HT 3-0 Parma Parma İTA
31.03.2019 Parma Parma 1-3 HT 1-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA

Parma 1-3 Atalanta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parma
1-3
AWAY Atalanta
0.75 xG 2.75
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
428 Passes 519
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 28
6 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Parma vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta beat Parma 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Parma had 45% of the ball to Atalanta's 55%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.75 to 2.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Parma and 3.17 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Parma vs Atalanta?

Parma 1-3 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parma vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Parma 26%, draw 25%, Atalanta 49%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Over 2.5
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