Parma 4-1 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.48
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
44%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.29
Over 2.5
46%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.61
No
57%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.92
4-5 Goals
22%
2.82
6+ Goals
10%
7.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.77 — our 30% vs market 16.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.53
1/2
9%
21.0
1/X
10%
14.7
X/1
12%
10.75
X/2
14%
4.16
X/X
12%
5.91
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.02
2/X
5%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
19%
+10.3pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.8pp
44%
Away Win
58%
-14.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
40%
+14.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
60%
-14.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
58%
-14.4pp
57%
BTTS No
42%
+14.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parma EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 62%
-38% / -38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
270 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parma
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Atalanta
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
0.94 xG 2.87
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 5
302 Passes 494
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
11 Box Touches 37
11 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.05.2021 Parma Parma 2-5 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
06.01.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 3-0 HT 1-0 Parma Parma İTA
28.07.2020 Parma Parma 1-2 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
06.01.2020 Atalanta Atalanta 5-0 HT 3-0 Parma Parma İTA
31.03.2019 Parma Parma 1-3 HT 1-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
27.10.2018 Atalanta Atalanta 3-0 HT 0-0 Parma Parma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parma
4-1
AWAY Atalanta
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Parma vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parma ran out comfortable winners over Atalanta 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Atalanta at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Parma had 41% of the ball to Atalanta's 59%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Parma and 3.50 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Parma vs Atalanta?

Parma 4-1 Atalanta in the Friendlies on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parma vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Parma 29%, draw 27%, Atalanta 44%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atalanta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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