Avai 2-1 Ponte Preta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.49
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.74
Over 2.5
36%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.19
No
65%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.89
2-3 Goals
35%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
4.14
6+ Goals
7%
19.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.89 — our 41% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
63%
-14.2pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.4pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+8.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
54%
+10.8pp
36%
Over 2.5
46%
-10.8pp
35%
BTTS Yes
42%
-6.7pp
65%
BTTS No
58%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avai EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 17%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.46/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.23
-19% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +17%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
371 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
21.3 Crosses 16.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avai
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Ponte Preta
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.08 xG 1.01
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
280 Passes 338
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2024 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BR2
04.11.2023 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 0-1 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BR2
08.07.2023 Avai Avai 0-1 HT 0-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
06.10.2021 Avai Avai 1-1 HT 1-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
07.07.2021 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 0-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BR2
12.12.2020 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-2 HT 1-1 Avai Avai BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avai
2-1
AWAY Ponte Preta
0.60 xG 0.85
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 7
282 Passes 284
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 11
13 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Avai vs Ponte Preta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avai edged past Ponte Preta 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Avai as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avai had 50% of the ball to Ponte Preta's 50%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 0.60 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Avai and 0.67 for Ponte Preta.

What was the final score of Avai vs Ponte Preta?

Avai 2-1 Ponte Preta in the Brazil - Serie B on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avai vs Ponte Preta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avai win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Avai 49%, draw 28%, Ponte Preta 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avai) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avai) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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