Coritiba 1-3 Botafogo SP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.81
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
4.25
6+ Goals
9%
20.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 33% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.5pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.9pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.6pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Coritiba EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo SP EU Bookmakers 20%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +16%
1.61/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.28
+2% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 74%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
23.6 Crosses 15.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Coritiba
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Botafogo SP
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.84 xG 1.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
293 Passes 340
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
03.08.2024 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 2-0 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
02.11.2019 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-1 HT 0-1 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
30.07.2019 Coritiba Coritiba 3-2 HT 2-2 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Coritiba
1-3
AWAY Botafogo SP
1.28 xG 1.27
70% Ball Possession 30%
16 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 5
587 Passes 206
91% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Coritiba vs Botafogo SP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo SP got the better of Coritiba 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Coritiba at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Coritiba had 70% of the ball to Botafogo SP's 30%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.28 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Coritiba had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Coritiba and 1.33 for Botafogo SP.

What was the final score of Coritiba vs Botafogo SP?

Coritiba 1-3 Botafogo SP in the Brazil - Serie B on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Coritiba vs Botafogo SP?

Before kick-off our model rated a Coritiba win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Coritiba 49%, draw 29%, Botafogo SP 22%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Coritiba) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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