Ituano 0-1 Amazonas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.38
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
29%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.75
Over 2.5
36%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.76
No
59%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
36%
3.04
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
3.92
6+ Goals
8%
17.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 36% vs market 27.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
38%
+1.3pp
31%
Draw
28%
+3.5pp
29%
Away Win
34%
-4.7pp
64%
Under 2.5
53%
+10.7pp
36%
Over 2.5
47%
-10.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
53%
-12.1pp
59%
BTTS No
47%
+12.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ituano EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Amazonas EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -50% / -50%
1.19/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.54/1.94
-4% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +9%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
280 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 81%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.0
21.7 Crosses 22.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ituano
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Amazonas
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.12 xG 1.96
27% Ball Possession 73%
3 Total Shots 25
1 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
125 Passes 490
60% Pass Accuracy 88%
13 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2024 Amazonas Amazonas 1-0 HT 0-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ituano
0-1
AWAY Amazonas
0.73 xG 0.48
39% Ball Possession 61%
15 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
266 Passes 443
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ituano vs Amazonas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amazonas squeezed past Ituano 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 31% / 29%) promised a tight game; Amazonas found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ituano had 39% of the ball to Amazonas's 61%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 0.73 to 0.48.

What was the final score of Ituano vs Amazonas?

Ituano 0-1 Amazonas in the Brazil - Serie B on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ituano vs Amazonas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ituano win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ituano 40%, draw 31%, Amazonas 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ituano) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ituano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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23 Nov 2024
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