Botev Plovdiv 3-1 Botev Vratsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.3
Draw
26%
4.62
Away
15%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.53
No
53%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
22%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
73%
-13.5pp
26%
Draw
19%
+7.6pp
14%
Away Win
9%
+5.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
36%
+11.1pp
53%
BTTS No
64%
-11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Botev Vratsa EU Bookmakers 11%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
2.33/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.40/2.96
+16% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -38%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
473 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botev Plovdiv
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Botev Vratsa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
21.07.2024 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 1-3 HT 0-0 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
10.02.2018 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-3 HT 0-2 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botev Plovdiv
3-1
AWAY Botev Vratsa
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 2
9 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Botev Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botev Plovdiv beat Botev Vratsa 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Botev Plovdiv as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Botev Plovdiv had 64% of the ball to Botev Vratsa's 36%, shots finished 17-2.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 2.00 for Botev Vratsa.

What was the final score of Botev Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa?

Botev Plovdiv 3-1 Botev Vratsa in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botev Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botev Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Botev Plovdiv 59%, draw 26%, Botev Vratsa 14%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botev Plovdiv) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botev Plovdiv) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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