Arda Kardzhali 4-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
71%
1.48
Over 2.5
29%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
30%
2.27
No
70%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
44%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
20%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-1.6pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.4pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.0pp
71%
Under 2.5
64%
+6.6pp
29%
Over 2.5
36%
-6.6pp
30%
BTTS Yes
40%
-9.6pp
70%
BTTS No
60%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.58/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.26
+43% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
352 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arda Kardzhali
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 8
0 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 4
20.07.2024 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 HT 1-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
18.02.2024 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 1-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
18.08.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 HT 0-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arda Kardzhali
4-2
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 0
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arda Kardzhali got the better of Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Arda Kardzhali as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (71%), no to both teams scoring (70%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arda Kardzhali had 45% of the ball to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 55%, shots finished 11-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Plovdiv led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 1.33 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Arda Kardzhali 4-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Arda Kardzhali 49%, draw 27%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 24%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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