NK Varazdin 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.78
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
4.31
6+ Goals
8%
21.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-0.9pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+3.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.8pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 37%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +21%
1.18/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.06
-22% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
340 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
20.3 Crosses 19.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.26 xG 1.13
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
281 Passes 304
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
13.04.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
02.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
21.10.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
04.08.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-3 HT 0-2 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
26.05.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
1-1
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.48 xG 1.06
54% Ball Possession 46%
7 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
287 Passes 239
73% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin and Lokomotiva Zagreb couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 54% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 46%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.48 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for NK Varazdin and 0.83 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

NK Varazdin 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 38%, draw 26%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (NK Varazdin), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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