St. Pölten 2-1 Kapfenberger SV — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 23 Nov 2025

📅23/11/2025 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.57
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
20%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.43
Over 2.5
61%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.6
No
42%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.94
2-3 Goals
38%
1.94
4-5 Goals
28%
2.63
6+ Goals
15%
6.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.98
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
14.75
X/1
14%
4.38
X/2
7%
10.8
X/X
8%
6.74
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.5
2/2
7%
7.81
2/X
5%
16.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.5 — our 10% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
59%
-0.9pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.9pp
20%
Away Win
20%
-0.0pp
39%
Under 2.5
38%
+1.9pp
61%
Over 2.5
62%
-1.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.1pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pölten EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapfenberger SV EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +2%
0.50/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.10
+13% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
320 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
26.0 Crosses 15.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pölten
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Kapfenberger SV
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
67% Ball Possession 33%
12 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.03.2025 St. Pölten St. Pölten 3-1 HT 1-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
23.08.2024 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Pölten St. Pölten AU2
08.03.2024 St. Pölten St. Pölten 2-0 HT 0-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
20.08.2023 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 0-3 HT 0-2 St. Pölten St. Pölten AU2
21.05.2023 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 2-1 HT 1-1 St. Pölten St. Pölten AU2
19.08.2022 St. Pölten St. Pölten 2-0 HT 1-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pölten
2-1
AWAY Kapfenberger SV
61% Ball Possession 39%
21 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Pölten vs Kapfenberger SV
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pölten edged past Kapfenberger SV 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had St. Pölten as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, St. Pölten had 61% of the ball to Kapfenberger SV's 39%, shots finished 21-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pölten had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for St. Pölten and 0.83 for Kapfenberger SV.

What was the final score of St. Pölten vs Kapfenberger SV?

St. Pölten 2-1 Kapfenberger SV in the Austria - 1st Division on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pölten vs Kapfenberger SV?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pölten win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split St. Pölten 58%, draw 22%, Kapfenberger SV 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pölten), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St. Pölten) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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