Fafe 2-1 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 23 Nov 2025

Fafe
2-1 HT 0-1
Arouca
📅23/11/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.84
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
49%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.66
2-3 Goals
46%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.1
6+ Goals
9%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
31%
-1.8pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.1pp
49%
Away Win
43%
+5.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.4pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fafe EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 48%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
0.81/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.00
-41% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +39%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fafe
2-1
AWAY Arouca
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fafe vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fafe nicked a narrow win over Arouca 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Arouca at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fafe had 56% of the ball to Arouca's 44%, shots finished 18-8.

What was the final score of Fafe vs Arouca?

Fafe 2-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Cup on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fafe vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Fafe 30%, draw 21%, Arouca 49%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Arouca), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arouca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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