Vila Mea 2-1 Leixoes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 23 Nov 2025

📅23/11/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.87
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
50%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.91
Over 2.5
57%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.76
No
37%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.3
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.33
6+ Goals
11%
12.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.33 — our 27% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
25%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
22%
-0.8pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.0pp
50%
Away Win
53%
-3.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
48%
-5.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
52%
+5.8pp
62%
BTTS Yes
53%
+9.7pp
38%
BTTS No
47%
-9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Mea EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Leixoes EU Bookmakers 57%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
3.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/0.17
+133% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +150%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
268 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 4.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Mea
2-1
AWAY Leixoes
54% Ball Possession 46%
21 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vila Mea vs Leixoes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Mea nicked a narrow win over Leixoes 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Leixoes at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vila Mea had 54% of the ball to Leixoes's 46%, shots finished 21-13.

What was the final score of Vila Mea vs Leixoes?

Vila Mea 2-1 Leixoes in the Portugal - Cup on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Mea vs Leixoes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leixoes win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Vila Mea 21%, draw 29%, Leixoes 50%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leixoes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leixoes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POK More Portugal - Cup
23 Nov 2025
14:00 Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Torreense Analysis →
17:00 Fafe vs Arouca Analysis →
18:00 Farense vs Silves FC Analysis →
19:00 Santa Clara vs Comercio Industria Analysis →
20:00 Tondela vs Caldas Analysis →
20:30 Sporting Braga vs Nacional Analysis →