Vitoria Guimaraes 1-4 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 23 Dec 2025

Vitoria Guimaraes
1-4 HT 0-2
Sporting CP
📅23/12/2025 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
5.4
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
58%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.24
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 31% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
11.05
1/2
10%
24.0
1/X
5%
20.25
X/1
5%
12.55
X/2
18%
3.82
X/X
14%
5.72
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
30%
1.86
2/X
7%
17.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Sporting CP win — 58% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
16%
+1.1pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.6pp
58%
Away Win
63%
-4.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria Guimaraes v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 67%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
1.42/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/0.72
+50% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +0%
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
204 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 79%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.3
20.2 Crosses 21.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sporting CP
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.76 xG 1.87
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
280 Passes 469
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
10 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.05.2025 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
03.01.2025 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 4-4 HT 1-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
21.04.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
09.12.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2 HT 1-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
24.04.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-2 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
05.11.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR

Vitoria Guimaraes 1-4 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1-4
AWAY Sporting CP
0.72 xG 2.55
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 5
267 Passes 371
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP swept aside Vitoria Guimaraes 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 44% of the ball to Sporting CP's 56%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 0.72 to 2.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 2.67 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting CP?

Vitoria Guimaraes 1-4 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 23/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 17%, draw 25%, Sporting CP 58%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →