Chaves 2-2 Lusitania FC Lourosa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 24 Jan 2026

📅24/01/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.68
Over 2.5
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.66
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
4.07
6+ Goals
9%
19.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.2pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chaves EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 30%
-7% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.41/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.92
-21% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
284 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.6 Crosses 15.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chaves
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.40 xG 1.23
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 8
246 Passes 287
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 2
16.08.2025 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-2 HT 0-2 Chaves Chaves POR2
20.10.2024 Chaves Chaves 2-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chaves
2-2
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
2.13 xG 0.97
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 4
303 Passes 186
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Crosses 17
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chaves vs Lusitania FC Lourosa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chaves and Lusitania FC Lourosa couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Chaves at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Chaves had 56% of the ball to Lusitania FC Lourosa's 44%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 2.13 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Chaves had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Chaves and 1.00 for Lusitania FC Lourosa.

What was the final score of Chaves vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Chaves 2-2 Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 24/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chaves vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Chaves 45%, draw 26%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chaves), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chaves) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
24 Jan 2026
17:00 Maritimo vs Felgueiras 1932 Analysis →
18:30 Leixoes vs Benfica II Analysis →