Chaves vs Lusitania FC Lourosa Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chaves v Lusitania FC Lourosa — Team-Based Signals
Chaves vs Lusitania FC Lourosa Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
Chaves 2-2 Lusitania FC Lourosa — Actual Match Statistics
Chaves and Lusitania FC Lourosa couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.
Our pre-match lean was Chaves at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Chaves had 56% of the ball to Lusitania FC Lourosa's 44%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 2.13 to 0.97.
Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Chaves had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Chaves and 1.00 for Lusitania FC Lourosa.
What was the final score of Chaves vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?
Chaves 2-2 Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 24/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chaves vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Chaves 45%, draw 26%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chaves), Under 2.5 went the other way.