Southampton 1-2 Millwall — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.43
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
18%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.08
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.07
6+ Goals
13%
9.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.74
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.35
X/1
19%
3.58
X/2
6%
13.85
X/X
10%
6.41
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
7%
10.9
2/X
5%
19.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
65%
-3.4pp
20%
Draw
20%
+0.1pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.4pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southampton EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Millwall EU Bookmakers 18%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -18%
2.00/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.46
+49% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +26%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
415 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 71%
37.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
20.6 Crosses 16.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southampton
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Millwall
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.10 xG 0.53
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
593 Passes 170
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2023 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNCL
26.08.2014 Millwall Millwall 0-2 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNLK
17.03.2012 Millwall Millwall 2-3 HT 2-1 Southampton Southampton İNCL
07.02.2012 Southampton Southampton 2-3 HT 1-1 Millwall Millwall FAK
28.01.2012 Millwall Millwall 1-1 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton FAK
20.08.2011 Southampton Southampton 1-0 HT 1-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southampton
1-2
AWAY Millwall
1.56 xG 1.16
80% Ball Possession 20%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 1
713 Passes 120
93% Pass Accuracy 63%
42 Box Touches 9
39 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Southampton vs Millwall
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall edged past Southampton 2-1 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Southampton at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Southampton had 80% of the ball to Millwall's 20%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.56 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Southampton had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Southampton and 1.00 for Millwall.

What was the final score of Southampton vs Millwall?

Southampton 1-2 Millwall in the England - Championship on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southampton vs Millwall?

Before kick-off our model rated a Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Southampton 62%, draw 20%, Millwall 18%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Southampton), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Southampton) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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