Machida Zelvia 1-1 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.59
Over 2.5
44%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
4.87
6+ Goals
9%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.39
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
12%
14.4
X/1
15%
4.65
X/2
10%
5.89
X/X
11%
3.94
2/1
9%
31.5
2/2
14%
4.71
2/X
7%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.0pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.6pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.1pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
398 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
Crosses 14.7
Yellow Cards 1.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
1-1
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.92 xG 1.52
34% Ball Possession 66%
18 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
181 Passes 457
67% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia and Gamba Osaka couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Machida Zelvia at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 34% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 66%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 1.92 to 1.52.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka?

Machida Zelvia 1-1 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 42%, draw 29%, Gamba Osaka 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Machida Zelvia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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