Sagan Tosu vs Albirex Niigata Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sagan Tosu v Albirex Niigata — Team-Based Signals
Sagan Tosu vs Albirex Niigata Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Sagan Tosu
JAP
2-0
HT 1-0
Albirex Niigata
JAP
1-0
HT 0-0
Sagan Tosu
JAP
3-0
HT 1-0
Albirex Niigata
JAP
2-2
HT 1-0
Albirex Niigata
JLK
1-0
HT 0-0
Albirex Niigata
JAP
Sagan Tosu 1-2 Albirex Niigata — Actual Match Statistics
Albirex Niigata edged past Sagan Tosu 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 31% / 38% — and on the day Albirex Niigata made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Sagan Tosu had 35% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 65%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 1.24 to 2.94 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Albirex Niigata's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sagan Tosu and 0.67 for Albirex Niigata.
What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Albirex Niigata?
Sagan Tosu 1-2 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Albirex Niigata?
Before kick-off our model rated an Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 31%, draw 31%, Albirex Niigata 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Albirex Niigata) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.