Ursaria 4-1 Montijo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.62
Over 2.5
48%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.09
No
49%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
58%
-5.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
42%
+5.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
+7.3pp
49%
BTTS No
56%
-7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ursaria EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Montijo EU Bookmakers 22%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +1%
1.03/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.64
-34% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -21%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
342 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ursaria
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Montijo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
12.11.2023 Montijo Montijo 0-2 HT 0-0 Ursaria Ursaria İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ursaria
4-1
AWAY Montijo
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 0
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ursaria vs Montijo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ursaria swept aside Montijo 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ursaria as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Ursaria had 67% of the ball to Montijo's 33%, shots finished 17-6.

What was the final score of Ursaria vs Montijo?

Ursaria 4-1 Montijo in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ursaria vs Montijo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ursaria win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Ursaria 51%, draw 25%, Montijo 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ursaria), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ursaria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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