İtalya U21 1-1 Danimarka U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 24 Mar 2025

İtalya U21
1-1 HT 1-1
Danimarka U21
📅24/03/2025 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2025

İtalya U21 vs Danimarka U21 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.73
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.08
6+ Goals
12%
10.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.85
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
3%
13.55
X/1
18%
4.86
X/2
10%
6.74
X/X
15%
5.38
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.55
2/2
13%
4.68
2/X
9%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS Yes — 54% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.1pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-2.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.3pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

İtalya U21 v Danimarka U21 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İtalya U21 EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Danimarka U21 EU Bookmakers 33%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
0.57/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.99
-65% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +52%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
398 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 81%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.0 Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

İtalya U21 vs Danimarka U21 Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İtalya U21
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Danimarka U21
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 6
358 Passes 321
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 7
25 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.06.2017 Danimarka U21 Danimarka U21 0-2 HT 0-0 İtalya U21 İtalya U21 U21
14.11.2016 İtalya U21 İtalya U21 0-0 HT 0-0 Danimarka U21 Danimarka U21 HAZ
17.11.2014 İtalya U21 İtalya U21 0-1 HT 0-0 Danimarka U21 Danimarka U21 HAZ
11.08.2010 İtalya U21 İtalya U21 2-2 HT 0-1 Danimarka U21 Danimarka U21 HAZ
24.05.2006 İtalya U21 İtalya U21 3-3 HT 1-3 Danimarka U21 Danimarka U21 U21

İtalya U21 1-1 Danimarka U21 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İtalya U21
1-1
AWAY Danimarka U21
1.90 xG 0.65
55% Ball Possession 45%
22 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 7
452 Passes 335
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH İtalya U21 vs Danimarka U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İtalya U21 and Danimarka U21 shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was İtalya U21 at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, İtalya U21 had 55% of the ball to Danimarka U21's 45%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 1.90 to 0.65.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for İtalya U21 and 1.20 for Danimarka U21.

What was the final score of İtalya U21 vs Danimarka U21?

İtalya U21 1-1 Danimarka U21 in the Friendlies on 24/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İtalya U21 vs Danimarka U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a İtalya U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split İtalya U21 45%, draw 28%, Danimarka U21 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (İtalya U21), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (İtalya U21) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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