Sepsi 2-2 FCSB — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Romania - 1st Division, 24 Apr 2024

Sepsi
2-2 HT 1-2
FCSB
📅24/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.29
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.58
6+ Goals
11%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 29% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
29%
+5.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.1pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sepsi EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY FCSB EU Bookmakers 49%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.26/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.10
+6% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
286 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sepsi
0W-0D-6L
AWAY FCSB
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.26 xG 1.30
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.03.2024 FCSB FCSB 2-1 HT 2-1 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
11.02.2024 FCSB FCSB 1-0 HT 1-0 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
24.09.2023 Sepsi Sepsi 2-5 HT 0-2 FCSB FCSB ROM
08.05.2023 FCSB FCSB 3-1 HT 1-0 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
03.04.2023 Sepsi Sepsi 1-2 HT 1-2 FCSB FCSB ROM
12.03.2023 FCSB FCSB 1-0 HT 1-0 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sepsi
2-2
AWAY FCSB
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Sepsi vs FCSB
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sepsi and FCSB shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was FCSB at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sepsi had 55% of the ball to FCSB's 45%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FCSB led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sepsi and 2.33 for FCSB.

What was the final score of Sepsi vs FCSB?

Sepsi 2-2 FCSB in the Romania - 1st Division on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sepsi vs FCSB?

Before kick-off our model rated an FCSB win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sepsi 34%, draw 25%, FCSB 41%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FCSB) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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