Mushuc Runa 3-0 Union Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 24 Apr 2025

📅24/04/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.6
Over
51%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
1.95
No
47%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2.46
2-3
40%
1.74
4-5
22%
4.44
6+
11%
23.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.3
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
11%
4.9
X/2
15%
6.53
X/X
12%
4.0
2/1
9%
31.0
2/2
12%
5.12
2/X
7%
14.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.0 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.6pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.0pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+4.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
59%
-9.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
41%
+9.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.6pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -42% / -42%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -46%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
251 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
Crosses 27.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
3-0
AWAY Union Santa Fe
1.28 xG 0.42
36% Ball Possession 64%
19 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
155 Passes 330
65% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs Union Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mushuc Runa ran out comfortable winners over Union Santa Fe 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mushuc Runa as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 36% of the ball to Union Santa Fe's 64%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 1.28 to 0.42.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs Union Santa Fe?

Mushuc Runa 3-0 Union Santa Fe in the Copa Sudamericana on 24/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs Union Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mushuc Runa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 42%, draw 25%, Union Santa Fe 34%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mushuc Runa), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mushuc Runa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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