Vitoria vs Cerro Largo Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vitoria v Cerro Largo — Team-Based Signals
Vitoria 0-1 Cerro Largo — Actual Match Statistics
Cerro Largo edged past Vitoria 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Vitoria at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.
On the day, Vitoria had 63% of the ball to Cerro Largo's 37%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 0.98 to 0.37 — the balance of chances actually favoured Vitoria.
What was the final score of Vitoria vs Cerro Largo?
Vitoria 0-1 Cerro Largo in the Copa Sudamericana on 24/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Cerro Largo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 55%, draw 21%, Cerro Largo 24%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Vitoria) went the other way.